5 Box Office Predictions For 2010

December 24, 2009 by John Dugan

2010 will be the highest grossing year in box office history.

With 2009 walking away as the highest grossing year in box office history, there are few signs that 2010 will stop the record-setting trend. Thanksgiving weekend 2009 exemplified the box office’s health, up 15% over the same period last year. With year over year total consumer spending flat during the holiday weekend, the box office’s growth proves that consumers continue to value movies as an affordable form of entertainment.

The Average ticket price will increase at twice its historical growth rate, around 4-6% in 2010.

Over a dozen 3D films came to the market in 2009 and there was not enough 3D equipped theaters to meet viewer demand. The prolonged credit crunch has reduced the rollout of both digital and 3D theaters in 2009. However, increasing liquidity and the high success rate of 3D films will prompt theater owners to accelerate the rollout of 3D screens in 2010. As the number of 3D productions increases along with 3D theaters through 2010 and beyond, theater owners will enjoy increasing ticket prices – 3D fetches a $3-6 ticket premium on average. With only 6,500 – 7,500 of the 38,990 domestic screens boasting 3D capability, there is certainly room to grow. Regal CEO Amy Miles affirmed my prediction in Regal’s Q3 earnings call.

Big budget films will dominate the production spend, but independents will show the highest aggregate return on investment.

Film Budget Spend There is an increasing budget disparity between studio films and independent films. This is the result of a decline in the number of studio films produced, combined with increases in marketing spend for those properties. This creates a void in the market, exposing the opportunity for independent filmmakers to position their films as viable investment vehicles, while studios strive to recoup astronomical budgets.

The movie marketing revolution will accelerate throughout 2010, rendering marketing spend far less important than marketing strategy.

From Paranormal Activity to District 9, 2009 proved that creating buzz around your film is far less a product of budget and far more a product of strategy. Each of these films had no A-list talent. Each of these films had no mass-marketing budget. Each of these films was a massive financial success. Today’s low-cost inbound marketing methods allow savvy filmmakers to find the audience that is actively seeking their films.